'Ask most Yes Cymru members who they'd enjoy being President of an independent Wales, and I reckon they'd choose Mark Drakeford'
Matt Greenough was Carwyn Jones' chief special adviser and involved with numerous Welsh Labour election campaigns.
Here he looks at what went right, and wrong, for Welsh Labour, and also the opposition parties within the 2021 Senedd election.
On Labour
As someone who worked in Welsh Labour politics for many of my adult life, and has been a Liverpool supporter for a lot more than that, this year has been mightily instructive. Winning is one thing. Staying on the top will be a lot a harder. That's even more true in politics than in football. Keeping that winning streak going for a whole generation, as Welsh Labour will have made by the next election in 2026, is an astonishing electoral achievement.
I've said during the last two successive devolved elections which was Labour's best ever result, but today's tops them all. To complement that 30 seat high water mark in the present context deserves all of the plaudits the party is getting today – from the Welsh commentariat a minimum of, most London's political observers are still opining over Hartlepool.
So, who deserves the plaudits? We ought to start with those who don't frequently get much publicity – mainly because they don't seek it. And that is Welsh Labour's incredibly well drilled political staff, headed up by their General Secretary, Louise Magee.
I know from painful experience what it's like obtaining the sign-off, attention and agreement you require from senior politicians who're often too busy running the country to remember about mailout deadlines and campaign meetings. Managing that process during a pandemic would have required the patience of Job, the knowhow of Machiavelli and also the willpower of Alun Wyn Jones.
Do we have to talk about the role of lady luck in Labour's wins? I would function as the first to confess (a few years following the result, a minimum of) that in 2021 we trusted some luck to bring home all the marginals we did. We'd have been pleased with 26 seats at that point. This time around the fact that the election coincided with the vaccine bounce, not lockdown gloom, certainly helped.
But, you can't seriously say that any politician, or political party, is lucky to possess been holding the fort when along comes the worst public health crisis in almost any of our lifetimes. Rather you can reason that Wales continues to be lucky to achieve the politicians in control that we did once the pandemic hit. The vaccine bounce didn't happen accidentally. It's not necessary to believe me. Look at the 10,000 majorities racked up by the First Minister in Cardiff West and also the Health Minister in Cardiff South & Penarth and draw your own conclusions. It is a vote of confidence on a massive scale. So look to leadership, not luck, to locate your most significant answers relating to this victory.
A word too for Julie James. The political campaign manager isn't a glamorous job, but it is hugely important. You're the phonecall when things fail. You're the peacekeeper, motivator and mollifier. Julie is, I think, certainly one of Welsh Labour's most underrated assets – not for considerably longer.
Does that mean it had been an ideal campaign? No, of course not. There have been stumbles in the beginning. Their email list of pledges appeared as if the effect of a an argument that nobody won. And no-one will be more gutted at losing the Vale of Clwyd than Ann Jones, who had held off the Tories since 1999. But, such was the effectiveness of performance right across Wales these were no more than stumbles on the path to Welsh Labour's most remarkable victory.
It was clear when Welsh Labour switched up its campaign slogan to “if you value it, vote for it” things were going much better than expected. A positive get-out-the-vote strapline resulted in canvass returns were overwhelmingly positive, and minds didn't have to be changed, it had been now a matter of turning support into votes. Few pundits grasped the significance of that switch-up, but for the political parties who did – by then it had been already past too far.
On the opposition
The sad irony for Plaid Cymru is that they got precisely the campaign they wanted.
They wanted this to become about leadership – and to turn it into a Presidential run off between Adam Price and Mark Drakeford, leaving the all-too quiet Paul Davies (the Conservative leader they thought would be in the mix) in the shadows. But, whilst Adam inched forwards in terms of recognition, the new First Minister surfed past him on the tidal wave of pandemic powered popularity. Ask most Yes Cymru members who they'd enjoy being President of an independent Wales, and I reckon they'd choose Mark Drakeford.
Added for this, balance noisier Andrew RT Davies jumped back into the mix as Tory leader, and did all of the opposing when it found the handling of the pandemic. Could Plaid have done almost anything to switch tactics as it became clear this wasn't working? Yes, for sure, but it probably wouldn't happen to be enough to save the Rhondda.
Things will not change for Plaid until they accept an unpalatable truth concerning the last two decades. Welsh Labour don't keep getting lucky – they keep making the right choices. Plaid Cymru don't keep having misfortune – they keep making the wrong choices and referring to the wrong things. They simply don't reflect to the nation a version of Wales that many Welsh people recognise. Ambition and aspiration are great qualities, however they need to be anchored within the daily reality of Welsh life. A first bold key to show they get it would be to adopt Angus Robertson's recommendation to rename themselves the New Wales Party.
