What the Senedd would seem like if the election was truly proportional

July 8, 2022

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Labour has won a convincing victory within the Welsh Parliament election.

For the next term there are only likely to be four parties represented within the Senedd following the Lib Dems managed to scrape a seat within the regional lists. Read the full results here.

However, if Wales were built with a truly proportional electoral system the make up from the Senedd would be quite different.

Though the Senedd is more proportional than Westminster, still it doesn't exactly reflect the way in which people in Wales voted due to the electoral system.

The graphic below teaches you exactly what the Senedd appears like now. If however clicking around the small tabs it might show you what it really could have been like if it was truly proportional in line with the constituency vote and regional vote:

The reason why a few of the tabs don't have a full 60 seats happens because the final votes were split along lots of smaller parties and independents so a full amount of seats couldn't be allocated. The seats are calculated by applying the proportion from the vote to 60 after which rounding to the nearest whole number.

What was the actual result?

Labour – 30

Conservative – 16

Plaid Cymru – 13

Liberal Democrat – 1

If it had been based just around the constituency vote

If it had been based on how people voted within their constituencies then Labour would lose six seats with the Tories and Plaid both losing one each.

The Lib Dems would gain two with the Greens, Abolish and Reform all you get one seat.

Labour 24
Conservative 15
Plaid Cymru 12
Liberal Democrat 3
Green 1
Abolish 1
Reform 1

If it were in line with the regional vote

If we look at the regional vote percentage even more parties win seats with UKIP and Propel both obtaining a seat. In this vote the Greens and Abolish both end up getting two seats.

This reflects how people have a tendency to prefer the individual they think has a chance to win in the constituencies but they are more prone to choose a party they want represented within the Senedd once they arrived at vote in the regional list.