Ministers won't release secret Brexit studies – and there's a very good reason why
Boris Johnson
Government ministers are refusing to release Brexit studies
which are expected to show the united kingdom will gain little from post-Brexit trade deals
with the US.
The Independent has leaked analyses dating back as long ago as 2021 in to the probable effect on growth from agreements long hailed as the prize for leaving the EU.
One trade expert said they are likely being concealed
because they will show the harm from new trade barriers with the continent
will far outweigh the profit from other deals.
Alan Winters, professor of economics at the University of
Sussex, said: “The entire Brexit debate continues to be conducted inside a great fog of
obfuscation”, and Paul Blomfield, Labour's Brexit spokesperson, said: “These
reports must be released immediately.
“If Boris Johnson really wants to risk European trade to secure a deal with Mr . trump, we need to know the cost.”
Freedom of information request
A freedom of information request submitted through the Independent was batted back through the Department for International Trade (DIT), who said analysis into other trade deals is “a operate in progress”.
It revealed that academics in the middle for Economic Policy
Research had evaluated the advantages from the US deal, an agreement with Japan and
from membership of the CPTPP, a trade partnership of 11 Pacific nations, but
said the information wouldn't be released because “it pertains to the development
of presidency policy”.
“Premature discharge of this analysis would be detrimental to the progress of future trade discussions once the UK has left the EU,” the department said.
What we gain from a contract is “a great deal small than what we lose from the EU”
Professor Winters, of the UK Trade Policy Observatory at the
University of Sussex, said: “If the federal government thought it were built with a very strong
case these deals could be big and strong they would publish these
studies.
“It's an indication that there are nothing there. To the
extent we have any analysis, it shows that the benefits of these deals
are very small.
“And, with any modelling, what we should profit from an agreement
with the US and Japan is a lot smaller than what we should lose in the EU.”
And Mr Blomfield added: “The government is embarking on the
most important negotiations in our postwar history. The British people deserve
to understand the outcome of the decisions being made on their behalf.”
However, a Downing Street spokesperson said: “New FTAs represent a substantial economic opportunity. With new freedoms to strike these ourselves, independently, we can open our markets, increase wages and improve living standards across the UK.”
