Mark Drakeford is facing a hard decision: How many Covid deaths is definitely an acceptable amount for the liberty? – Will Hayward

Mark Drakeford is facing a very difficult choice.

We have no idea yet as he is going to have to make it – but it is one he is going to need to make.

The option is a cold one: how many coronavirus deaths is an acceptable add up to justify providing people with in Wales their lives back?

In a means this has been the option from the beginning of the pandemic. From early March last year the choice could have been made that nothing justifies imposing such restrictive measures on the people of Wales. However we know that this might have led to a catastrophic amount of deaths. Though a minority did call for this, most people understood why these measures were necessary. The problem we had in India several months ago, with a totally overwhelmed health service, justified the decision to lockdown.

However, we are now in a very different world for many reasons.

Firstly, we have vaccines that are visibly lessening the hyperlink between cases and deaths.

Secondly, we currently comprehend the true harm of the lockdown. Obviously before March 2021 we're able to have guessed the long term consequences of shutting schools, gyms and practically each and every practical social setting outside our homes but we didn't truly comprehend it. Now we all know precisely how a lockdown, specially in the middle of winter, eats away at the collective morale and wellbeing of a nation in addition to eroding the prospects for young adults.

The main reason the very first Minister will, within the not too distant future, be deciding between how many coronavirus deaths is definitely an acceptable amount to give individuals Wales their lives back happens because Covid 19 goes nowhere. It's now endemic.

There will likely always be some Covid in circulation and, since the vaccines aren't fully effective (and some people can't or do not possess it), many people will continue to die. But there will be a time when the harm done by the virus is going to be totally offset by the damage made by restrictions.

Now this can be a hard choice, but it's one we like a society make every single day without even thinking.

According to Welsh Government figures, there have been 4,318 recorded road crashes in 2021 with almost 100 people dying. Fewer people would die when we closed the M4 but we do not even consider doing that because of the immense impact it would dress in so many people's lives. There is a similar situation with alcohol. A booze ban may likely save lives but it would be such an imposition that there's absolutely no way of it happening.

These aren't new choices – however this doesn't make sure they are any easier for Drakeford to create. Then when will that point come? I put this to the First Minister a few weeks ago and though he'd not commit to a date (not the very first time I have written that in the pandemic), he did explain the calculation he'll employ.

He said: “The calculation is the fact that we have to suppress herpes enough where it no longer threatens to routinely overwhelm the health service. If this reaches the point where n't i longer crowds out all of the other things that we know the service needs to do. If we can suppress it to that particular extent then we will need to just accept it.”

Now we could get into an extended analysis about how if Wales and the wider UK did not have such appalling low critical care capacity to begin with (when compared to other civilized world) then the threshold for the NHS getting overwhelmed would be far higher, but this has been covered elsewhere (though it shouldn't lessen your fury at this shortsightedness).

The thing to originate from this really is that, once the modelling shows that the Welsh NHS won't be overwhelmed, mandatory restrictions will end. And that we must hold the Welsh Government's feet to the fire on this. Yes the restrictions were necessary but we should not for a single second accept this degree of government intrusion into our way of life as normal. History is stuffed with crises which necessitated impositions on people's liberties that were never fully restored.

The latest modelling from Swansea University suggests that the 3rd wave will peak in July/August and result in about 200 deaths in Wales (this is the probably scenario though there are far worse). And this is before everyone is vaccinated twice. Once most people are vaccinated, the justification for continuing mandatory restrictions starts to get very thin. If the Welsh Government won't lift restrictions then, when will they? If they're still concerned that the NHS might be overwhelmed they need to produce an immediate, coherent arrange for rapidly and permanently increasing NHS ability to Mark Drakeford's calculation.

This must not be interpreted as dismissing the deaths which will inevitably originate from lift restriction. When someone close to you dies it is no less a tragedy for having been certainly one of Covid deaths instead of certainly one of 100,000. It does not hurt less. But these balancing act decisions are necessary. These calls are made every day within the NHS regarding treating all sorts of conditions. “Drug X may increase one person's possibility of surviving but it costs so much that much more people will die because resources couldn't be spent elsewhere” is a real and daily way of thinking. These decisions are merely the reality of living in a global with death and limited resources.

I am also not saying that we have to be reckless with this lifting of restrictions. The present caution makes sense. We don't fully understand how well the vaccines will work yet. If we just let loose, herpes runs wild and also the vaccines aren't competitive with hopefully, it's incredibly challenging that situation back in check.

There will also be other factors at play. We don't know the impact long Covid will have around the future health of our nation. Moreover, if there is a “vaccine escape” variant of the virus then further lockdowns may be required, although it is hard to put into words how soul destroying that might be.

However, providing there is no escape variant and the vaccines are as effective as hopefully a decision is originating for the First Minister, and we must make sure when the time comes, he restores our liberties entirely.