Why has got the SNP been so much more successful than Plaid Cymru?

In the devolved elections of 1999 the SNP and Plaid Cymru were in a very similar position.

It was the very first time either party had been capable of taking part within an election for any government in their own nation – and they returned very similar results.

The SNP won 27% from the total seats within the Scottish Parliament and Plaid Cymru won 28% within the then Welsh Assembly. Both were roundly beaten through the Labour Party who won 43% of Scottish seats and 47% of Welsh.

Roll forward 22 years towards the elections on May 6 and also the two parties are poles (and polls) apart. Among the only similarities is they both put independence of their respective countries at the heart of their election campaign.

The SNP has turned into a political juggernaut. Winning 64 seats, a lot more than the Tories (31) and Labour (22) combined, they continued their tight grip on power.

By contrast Plaid Cymru's election was a real disappointment with them slumped in third place with 13 seats behind Labour (30) and the Conservatives (16). They may have gained one seat overall but they lost the Rhondda where former leader Leanne Wood lost her seat to Labour.

By Plaid's own expectations this can't be viewed as anything other than a disaster. This past year leader Adam Price asserted any result which wasn't him as First Minister will be a failure. Not only did he not end up being the First Minister, also, he didn't be a power broker as a direct consequence as Labour managed to secure a working majority.

So how has this happened? How have two parties who have been inside a similar position in 1999, seen such differing fortunes two decades later? And why is the problem of independence seemingly such a winner in Scotland instead of Wales?

To answer these questions WalesOnline spoke to three leading academics and political analysts:

• Dr Jac Larner, research fellow at Edinburgh University and lecturer in politics at Cardiff University.

• Professor Richard Wyn Jones, director from the Wales Governance

• Laura McAllister, professor of public policy and also the governance of Wales in the Wales Governance Centre and Western Mail columnist

These are complicated questions and complex questions unusually have complicated answers but we've brought together a few of the key themes to help understand why Plaid have been in the position they are in.

Welsh Labour and Scottish Labour are extremely different beasts

You can't measure the relative performance of Plaid and also the SNP without first looking at their respective opponents – Labour.

Scottish Labour isn't on a single degree of Welsh Labour. It may sound obvious but it bears repeating.

“There may be the weakness of Scottish Labour,” Dr Larner. “In Scotland, Labour experienced a series of leaders in quick succession and failed to establish a unique Scottish voice and identity. In Wales, Welsh Labour have been so strong simply because they were able to at least portray a level of distinctiveness from UK Labour under leadership of the extremely popular Rhodri Morgan.”

This distinctive identity continues to be continued by Mark Drakeford (we will get to him inside a bit) and it has resulted in becoming the dominant party in Wales is a far harder proposition than it was in Scotland.

Professor McAllister agreed saying: “The problem for Plaid Cymru was Welsh Labour have always been a celebration confident with their Welsh identity whilst actively exploiting it at times.”

Comparing the SNP and Plaid is much like comparing oranges and apples

According to Professor McAllister, the origins and makeup of the respective parties meant that the SNP already were built with a head start.

She said: “The sort of civic nationalism that the SNP could drive, even before modern democratic devolution, but certainly within the run-up to the establishment from the Scottish Parliament, gave it a much more rational, balanced and broader platform than Plaid Cymru could use due to Plaid's origins.

“Plaid was established to protect the Welsh language and culture and also to protect Wales in an exceedingly general sense, all without the infrastructure of a semi independent state to give real credibility and credence to that.”

Did Plaid's focus on independence hurt it within the 2021 election?

This was the very first election where Plaid Cymru place the issue of Welsh independence at the front and centre of their campaign.

If we explore the data from the election they create interesting reading. Regardless of the overall disappointing election result, Plaid's vote massively increased in the heartlands. In Ceredgion Elin Jones saw a 14 percentage point rise in her vote with Si^an Gwenllian saw an eight point rise in Arfon.

However big target seats in Blaenau Gwent (-20) and Llanelli (-8) saw large falls within their vote share. So was the main focus on independence just preaching towards the converted?

According to Dr Larner, individuals Wales function not worry about independence enough for it to be a vote winner like it is in Scotland. “Independence is far less salient in Wales,” he explained. “Whereas in Scotland it's the dominant political and societal cleavage at the moment. So for many Welsh voters, even those who are favourable to independence, just don't think about it all too often.”

Within the increase towards the election WalesOnline spent time speaking with people in the town of Porth in the Rhondda about whether independence would be a big issue on their behalf. It was the region that saw a huge stop by support for Plaid that led to Leanne Wood losing her seat. Though no academic read the overwhelming anecdotal evidence from the area suggested that individuals had no strong opinions around the issue of Welsh independence and simply wanted to see action on jobs and also to support local amenities.

Professor Wyn Jones felt that, whether it worked within this election or not, Plaid is going to have to maintain this vocal support to differentiate from Welsh Labour who've now use support further devolution.

When asked if the concentrate on independence hurt Plaid within the last election he explained: “In the aggregate probably not, although it may have hurt in particular places. I can tell you properly in some weeks when we've analysed the data in the Welsh Election Study.

“Over the longer term, though, it had been probably essential for these to concentrate on this, most famously because Welsh Labour has become camped out so firmly around the territory that used to be Plaid's own. Home rule, standing up for Wales, and all sorts of that!”

He added: “This was probably the first election in which Plaid had independence at the top of its agenda and my guess is the fact that that led to a re-composition of its vote i.e. some former supporters left but were substituted with others who were attracted by the stress on independence.

“So in ways the proven fact that Plaid stood still despite managing a poor campaign reaches least testament to the truth that the stress (for the first time, really) on independence didn't damage them in almost any fundamental way.”

Labour in Wales happen to be much better at managing the issue of independence

When taking a look at why independence hasn't been such a vote winner for Plaid addititionally there is the truth that Welsh Labour haven't allowed it to cause the same internal damage as has been the situation in Scottish Labour.

“It's also important to notice that Welsh Labour is much cannier than Scottish Labour,” said Professor Wyn Jones. “The latter has, in effect, shown the door to the previous (rather large quantity of) independence-supporting voters. But as it's 'purified' its vote base of these 'heretics', it has been much weakened like a political force.

“Welsh Labour is decided not to repeat this mistake (as they regard it) and it has worked very difficult not to alienate those among its support-base who support independence. Hence the soft-nationalist framing, the strain on home rule and radical constitutional change.”

The SNP have simply been more “brutal”

Observers of Scotish politics knows the SNP could be brutal sometimes.

Professor McAllister believes it has been an issue within their success.

She explained: “One of the things that the SNP has done very well is be politically pragmatic – and a tiny bit brutal. You may make your own call on whether you want political parties to become as brutal because the SNP happen to be. Or you can state that this is actually the best way that you could usurp a significant party's hegemony like Scottish Labour's.

“What I am talking about by brutal is that the SNP had one goal which was to consider over from Scottish Labour and to govern in the new parliament and it go about making sure that actually happened like a precursor to an independence referendum.”

Professor Wyn Jones also believes there are issues within Plaid that should be overcome before it has a possibility of posing an identical electoral threat to Labour.

“A large part from the answer is boring: it's organisational,” he explained. “The party is well behind Labour and Tories on this score. It has been for some time and yet it's done nothing about this. As a smaller, poorer party compared to 'big two' it must be cleverer than them, however it hasn't been that for some time while now.”

Being in power makes life easier

When comparing the fortunes of Plaid and the SNP within the last election it's impossible to overlook the overwhelming political advantage which comes from being in power during a national crisis just like a pandemic. The enormous demand for Drakeford , who added 10,000 to his majority in Cardiff West, is testament to this.

The Tories in England, Labour in Wales and the SNP in Scotland all enjoyed success in the country where they held power on May 6.

Dr Larner said: "A lot of case right down to how successful the SNP have been electorally. Elites in power possess a large amount of influence within the narratives set and may influence the salience of various issues. "

Independence is just an easier sell in Scotland

“Far fewer people travel over the Scottish border for work,” explained Dr Larner. “Scotland has always been more dissimilar to England in many ways. Wales continues to be much closer integrated over hundreds of years.”

This reaches the heart of the fundamental challenge that Plaid faces in making independence a big vote winner outside its traditional heartlands. Once the north west of England saw a spike in cases due to the Kent variant, northern Wales swiftly followed suit. This longer and much more porous border, with many people having strong links on each side, talks to why independence is going to be a tough sell for Plaid.

Dr Larner added: "Scotland has additionally been institutionally distinct from England for hundreds of years: it features a distinct legal system, another education system, in addition to many other institutions an independent country would need. Conversely, Wales has historically been much more integrated with English institutions. "