The cabinet ministers who are favourites to succeed Mark Drakeford as First Minister

When Mark Drakeford named his new cabinet, not only did he dramatically reshape his top team but gave some clues regarding who his successor could be.

The new-look cabinet is essential to check out with regards to the way forward for Welsh Labour. Mark Drakeford has said he won't serve all of the next 5 years as First Minister, and questions are already being asked about who his successor might be.

The big three roles of health, education and economy are filled by the three people currently probably to think about a leadership bid.

Former health minister Vaughan Gething was moved to economy, with Eluned Morgan promoted to health.

Jeremy Miles, who is often discussed as a potential future leader, was promoted towards the education portfolio within the reshuffle after Lib Dem Kirsty Williams had already opened the door to a different education minister by not standing again.

Last time there was a leadership battle in Labour Mr Gething and Mrs Morgan both put their names forward.

We asked three experts what the reshuffle means with regards to the future of Labour and if there's other people within the cabinet who is a future leader in the making.

Cathy Owens, political consultant and former special adviser

The reshuffle was a mix of a number of issues – a reflection to a amount of long term friendship and support, so that as one would expect, outright talent and potential, but the reality of the very heavy shifts that some ministers have place in, and the willingness of some cabinet members, more than others, enter into feet first and help out with the very stressful, lengthy hours in tackling the pandemic.

In discussions on cabinet roles and leadership, let's not overlook Julie James, who has become Mark Drakeford's right hand. She is fiercely intelligent and driven, and after chairing probably the most successful election campaign, she is rewarded having a super portfolio role, the main one she would have selected, with a partner in Lee Waters she'll be very happy about. It is the dream delivery team. One must ask why we always overlook Julie and ladies like her for leadership roles.

But in terms of Vaughan, Eluned and Jeremy, I can tell all three being on a future ballot, but possibly with different betting odds than before the crisis.

There is no doubt about the shift that Vaughan has put in, which meant he could agree his next move with MD. Eluned has jumped in 2 feet first and it has convinced MD that they has got the drive to consider over the hardest job on offer. And Jeremy will now be tested in his first big delivery role (with apologies to constitutional nerds).

So The four potential FMs have all got the large roles. That is a testament, in the main, to MD rewarding talent and drive, and Welsh Labour more widely being able to get past the weird factional stuff we have seen in additional factors of the party.

It's the most inspired reshuffle, using the right individuals the right places, for the best reasons. That is vital because whoever you voted for, we all rely on them to help us cope with the coming years.

Matt Greenough, former special advisor to Carwyn Jones

The leadership contest does seem like a three-horse race. Jeremy Miles, Eluned Morgan and Vaughan Gething have traditionally the three most prominent jobs in cabinet and fairly clear ambitions for future years. If each does make a bid for that leadership, chances are that they will hoover up enough nominations to make it difficult for other people to get around the ballot paper. They have strong supporters, and both Eluned and Vaughan exceeded expectations within the last leadership contest which everyone predicted like a shoe-in for Mark Drakeford.

There's quite a long time to visit yet, however. Mark isn't going anywhere soon. And politics can always derail what seems like a racing certainty.

Who might spring a surprise? There is no obvious standard bearer for that left among the three quoted above.

Mick Antoniw has returned as Counsel General and is most closely linked to the Corbyn project. He might consider a run. Julie James is really a formidable politician and a more progressive view of your cabinet jobs might claim that hers is at least as big a job as the traditional big three of education, health and economy. Rebecca Evans has showed all the understated can-do confidence you want in a successful Finance Minister.

Vaughan, Eluned and Jeremy are worthy favourites for the time being.

The election of 1 may have the very happy consequence of breaking new ground – Wales would have its first black, female or gay First Minister. But, the last consideration worth pondering. The Senedd has never had a leader representing a North Walian seat. Labour has five North Walian MSs, and it is locked in a continual fight to show the relevance of devolution towards the north. When the North Wales group agreed to submit an applicant, it would just have one more nomination to obtain them around the ballot paper. And when you're around the ballot, it is game on.

Laura McAllister, professor at Cardiff University

There's been virtually no time for Welsh Labour to bask in the glory of the outstanding Senedd election result. The 'new' First Minister needed to get lower to business. His newly appointed cabinet for that sixth Senedd term provides a fair degree of freshness, indicating how energised Mark Drakeford must feel after such a personal success. That is it two-thirds female is impressive by any comparative international standards. Still, that doesn't mean it is automatically a 'feminist government', merely a female-dominated one for the time being. The former label will need to be earned over the full Senedd term.

It was encouraging to see the development of the powerful new global warming ministry merging environment, energy, housing, planning and transport and led by the eminently capable set of Julie James and Lee Waters. They'll need to be sure this ministry doesn't promise a lot more than it may deliver though.

There are two new deputy ministers, Lynne Neagle and Dawn Bowden, the latter in the so-called Secretary of state for Fun, although I'm not sure sports and also the arts feel they meet that label right now, ravaged because they have been by Covid.

The big political talking point may be the three likely contenders to consider within the mantle of Welsh Labour leader and First Minister once Mark Drakeford steps down at some point in this term. It's all about platform and visibility as the past 14 months have vividly shown. The big hitters have moved to different portfolios. Vaughan Gething, after an unbelievably tough five years at health, progresses to economy with a heavy focus on post-pandemic rebuild. This is a double-edged sword, given the downbeat forecasts for future Welsh budgets from my Wales Governance colleagues there is however plenty of praise and positivity to be garnered in this portfolio too.

Jeremy Miles was surely itching for any fresh role after his (mostly futile) pursuing a Welsh voice within the Brexit negotiations after which against the UK Internal Market bill obstinacy of Westminster. So onwards to education. Coping with PISA rankings and the teaching unions is never easy but there are plenty of positives here too, particularly with a fresh curriculum coming.

Labour has never were built with a female leader despite its tremendous record on promoting women MSs. This time around round Eluned Morgan shouldn't be scrambling around for nominations to get around the ballot paper. Health is going to be massively high profile for sure but likely for all the wrong reasons. Covid recovery, a hefty backlog of routine operations, never mind the metal health impacts once we leave the traumas of a pandemic but Eluned is a tough cookie who's existed the political block and she'll be relishing the opportunity to stamp her authority around the portfolio and, in so doing, elevate her profile ready for a leadership challenge.